SpinFlow: A Physics-Informed Spin Field Framework for Traffic Phase Inference and Transition Detection
How can vehicle trajectories reveal the structure of a traffic transition? With SpinFlow, I draw on Kerner’s three-phase theory and statistical physics to study how free flow, synchronized flow, and wide moving jams coexist and compete across space. A continuous latent spin field and a competitive-equilibrium mapping encode their local mixture. Physics-regularized expectation–maximization jointly infers the field and calibrates fundamental-diagram prototypes from wave-aligned trajectory samples, with soft conservation and smoothness penalties. The Phase Equilibrium Degree measures consistency between inferred and observation-derived mixtures. Across four real-world datasets, flow reconstruction achieves R² values up to 0.940, while disabling the competition penalty increases flow-reconstruction RMSE by 5.7–24.3%. Detected transitions in bottleneck cases align with documented lane-drop and on-ramp features. What interests me is making phase coexistence and its breakdown inferable; using that structure to guide effective interventions remains a further control question.